Dự báo chuỗi thời gian dựa trên học máy: Trường hợp nghiên cứu về dự báo nhiệt độ ở một số trạm Việt Nam
188 lượt xemDOI:
https://doi.org/10.54939/1859-1043.j.mst.85.2023.152-162Từ khóa:
Học máy; Dự báo nhiệt độ; Học sâu; Chuỗi thời gian; SARIMA; XGBoost.Tóm tắt
Trong những năm gần đây, sử dụng các mô hình học máy để dự báo ngày càng được quan tâm. Trong nghiên cứu này, chúng tôi sẽ sử dụng dữ liệu nhiệt độ ở các trạm của Việt Nam để dự báo nhiệt độ. Nghiên cứu có sử dụng một số mô hình dự báo. Đầu tiên, phương pháp dự báo theo chuỗi thời gian truyền thống như ARIMA theo mùa (SARIMA). Sau đó, các phương pháp tiếp cận phức tạp hơn như XGBoost, Encoder-Decoder và Prophet được sử dụng. Hiệu suất của các mô hình được so sánh với nhau sử dụng một số độ đo đánh giá độ chính xác (ví dụ: sai số toàn phương trung bình (RMSE) và sai số trung bình tuyệt đối (MAE)). Các kết quả đã khẳng định tính ưu việt của phương pháp học sâu so với các phương pháp khác.
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